02.24.2026

Lifetime Risk of Incident Dementia and Incident Mild Cognitive Impairment In Older Adults

Dementia is a growing public health crisis, affecting over 7 million Americans and carrying a severe financial burden projected to exceed $700 billion in 2024. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) affects over 12 million Americans and is associated with elevated risks of dementia and mortality. Since no cure exists for dementia, prevention and early risk stratification are critical for informing policy and early intervention.

This study used harmonized longitudinal data from five Rush Alzheimer’s Disease Center (RADC) cohorts to estimate lifetime risks of incident dementia and incident MCI. It also evaluated disparities in lifetime risk by sex and race, addressing important gaps in prior research, particularly among the oldest-old and underrepresented populations. Using harmonized data from cohorts at the Rush Alzheimer’s Disease Center, this study estimated lifetime risks of dementia and MCI including examining differences by sex and race. Risk rose sharply after the age range of mid-60s to mid-70s with women and Black participants having higher lifetime risks.

Link: Alzheimer’s & Dementia (01/2026)